Commencement Address




Congratulations to all the new graduates – people New York Times columnist David Brooks calls “members of the most supervised generation in American history”. On one point alone, that could be true – the phrase “helicopter parent” did not exist in my childhood. Nor in the childhoods of my parents. Or their parents. Or any other generation in history.

Just yours.

Comedian Steve Martin illustrates this point when he tells the story of how he, at 11 years old, pedaled his bike two miles down the road to the new Disneyland, and successfully got a job paying $2 a day. Eleven years old. Pedaling a bike. Alone. No helmet. Getting a job. Getting paid.

Today, we don’t even allow 11 year olds to cut their own meat.

But we do allow you to graduate, and… then what?

I don’t have to tell you that you’re graduating into a changed world – you can feel it. Doesn’t it seem that so little in the world is certain? Back in great-grandpa’s day, it was enough to get through the eighth grade – and you could get a good job in the factory, couldn’t you? Working every day at the same job for years, then retiring with a pension.

That’s sure changed.

A year ago, unemployment in the United States stood at 9.6%. Currently, it’s 8.7%. In June of 2000, it was just 3.6%. [Don't you wish you'd graduated then?]

The factory where your great-grandfather worked is shuttered. An eighth grade education won’t get you anywhere. Pensions went the way of the dinosaurs.

You’re graduating into a world where it’s likely you’ll stay in your first job about 3 years. And you’ll change jobs about that often from there on out. And your parents will wonder what’s wrong with you, and worry that you can’t keep a job.

Don’t be too hard on the dear helicopters. Your folks are just operating under the rules that worked for their generation.

Your generation is quite different.

Neil Howe and Bill Strauss built their careers studying the generational cycles of history. In fact, they’re the guys who named your generation “The Millennials”. Born from 1982 to 2005, you are quite different from the Baby Boomers. Where they had excess and protests and sex-drugs-and-rock-and-roll, you’ll have something different – what it is, well… it’s not quite clear. Yet. Watch this fascinating video presentation from Dave Sohigian, which explains the generations and your place in the repeating cycle of life.

You’re a Hero generation, graduates, just like the men and women who formed The Greatest Generation (born about 80 years before you – 1901 to 1924). They fought World War II and built the suburbs. They faced enormous, unfathomable challenges, and a totally changed world. But out of that chaos, they created a new America. And, just like them, your generation will create something very important – something that will also change society in deep and profound ways.

How do I know?

You’re born to it. You’re Heroes. You just need to find the way to channel your heroism.

In Letters To A Young Poet, Rainer Maria Rilke writes, “You are so young; you stand before beginnings. I would like to beg of you, dear friend, as well as I can, to have patience with everything that remains unsolved in your heart. Try to love the questions themselves, like locked rooms and like books written in a foreign languages. Do not now look for the answers. They cannot now be given to you because you could not live them. It is a question of experiencing everything. At present you to live the question.”

So, too, you – my young heroes. Your opportunity for leadership and courage and honor will come to you. It’s your birthright.

And we – the generations ahead of you – we’re depending on you, whether we’ll admit it or not.

Go out. Have experiences. All the experiences you can find. Make your way without supervision – finally. Most of all, live the questions. Because when you solve them – and you will – the world will thank you.

Talkin’ Bout My G-g-g-generation


Over the summer I got together with my old friend and White House colleague Gerry Koenig — we had lost touch and happily re-connected via LinkedIn, the professional social networking site. Gerry, once an Army helicopter pilot, now practices aviation law, and keeps his mind agile by reading interesting books.

He told me about a fascinating book, called The Fourth Turning by the late William Strauss and Neil Howe.

When Gerry mentioned that the book, written in 1997, predicted the 9/11 terrorist attacks, I knew I had to read it. And I did. And, I am seeing the nation’s current financial crisis through different eyes.

Strauss and Howe, historians, economists and experts on generational issues, looked back through American history and identified not only political cycles but generational cycles. Roughly each 80 years, in 20 year cycles, the country moves through a High period, which gives way to an Awakening, which turns into an Unraveling, and then into a Crisis.

Strauss and Howe identify four distinct generations that have repeated over time: Hero, Artist, Prophet, Nomad. According to their research, a Crisis features the Prophets (Baby-Boomers) entering elderhood; Nomads (my generation) entering midlife; Heros (the Millenials) entering young adulthood; and, those entering childhood — the new Artist generation.

In other words, the conditions are exactly right exactly now for our country to enter Crisis.

Back in 1997, Strauss and Howe wrote: “Based on recent Unraveling-era trends, the following circa-2005 scenarios might seem plausible…Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation).” Sound familiar?

How about: “History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war — class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war.”

Check.

Before you start quoting lines from Ghostbusters (“a disaster of Biblical proportions! Real wrath of God stuff! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… MASS HYSTERIA!”), let me assure you, the nation has faced Crisis before –and will again — and we’ve emerged into a new High. All is not lost.

In the Crisis, America will want change. We will want the stability of a strong government that works. We will favor personal sacrifice. We will want to be more self-sufficient. We will want solutions, not more of the same. We will demand that our leaders reflect these national values.

What does this mean for you? For your career? For your business? For your kids?

Start now. Especially my fellow Nomads. Move towards self-sufficiency – don’t borrow more than you can pay back. Grow your own tomatoes. Wash your own car. Incorporate a dose of self-sacrifice — trust me, 23 pair of shoes in the closet work with your wardrobe just as successfully as 112. Save five to ten percent of your income. Donate to charities you believe in. Build a business that really serves your best customers. Focus. Teach your children (and yourself) about money, budgets and prudent investing.

“With or without war, American society will be transformed into something different. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.”

And so it is for each of us. A time of glory or ruin. We’ve had advance notice of what’s coming — what we do about it as a nation, and as individuals, is completely up to us.